Author: danny
On Courtyard's product page, collectors are presented with several choices: open a random card pack and keep the card drawn in the vault, request shipment to their home, or accept the platform's quote and sell immediately to recover funds.
A Pokémon card sealed in a clear hard case thus has different destinations. For one person, it is exit capital after failing to draw the target; for another, it may be the version that has been missing from their collection album for a long time. When a transaction occurs, the physical item stays where it is; what changes is ownership, and who is willing to pay for it.
Trading card games, or TCG, after moving on-chain, the most noteworthy change lies exactly here. In the past, once a pack of cards was sold, the operator waited for the next customer; now, pack opening, quoting, buyback, and repurchasing can be linked together. The same card and the same budget have the opportunity to participate in multiple transactions in succession. Inventory does not move, but trading volume increases geometrically.
Human nature is gambling-oriented, meaning: some people are willing to spend a small amount of money to buy a chance at a big outcome; but where is it spent? Some spend on overwhelming promotional posters, on KOL endorsements, and some choose the cultural IP they are familiar with—TCG is that vehicle.
Rather than playing incomprehensible slot machines in a casino, it would be better to buy Pokémon cards—why? Pokémon, I know it~
A few numbers to give everyone context
As of the end of March 2026, cumulative production of Pokémon cards exceeded 85 billion cards, with sales covering more than 90 countries and regions. The digital card application Pokémon TCG Pocket announced in October 2025 that cumulative downloads had exceeded 150 million.
Research institution Straits Research, in a report updated in October 2026, forecast the global trading card game market size that year at approximately US$16.3 billion.
Business Insider in December 2025 cited eBay data reporting that trading cards were the second-hand goods category most purchased by U.S. Gen Z on the platform that year up to the time of the report.
Background
Speaking of TCG, this business has a much longer history than cryptocurrency. In 1993, Magic: The Gathering was released. Wizards of the Coast co-founder Peter Adkison traveled along the U.S. West Coast visiting game stores, introducing this new gameplay of buying cards, building decks, and battling to players through demonstrations. And so, one small store after another opened. Do not underestimate these inconspicuous
stores; they are both sales channels and social venues for fans.
More than thirty years later, the elementary school students of that time have money, and cards have also changed from game props into collectibles and investment assets. Some study decks, some chase illustrations and versions, and some buy back the "white moonlight" they could not bear to buy as children. Regardless of the reason, the target audience keeps growing.
Hasbro's 2025 investor materials show that the average age of Magic: The Gathering tabletop players is about 35, with average participation time exceeding five years, and the Wizards Play Network covers about 9,600 stores. In 2025, Magic: The Gathering tabletop and digital products combined revenue reached US$1.72 billion, a year-on-year increase of 59%.
Why are there so many participants?
The most obvious reason is that young people see no hope?
The threshold for traditional wealth accumulation is getting higher and higher. A 2025 survey by the National Association of Realtors showed that first-time homebuyers fell to 21% of all homebuyers, and the median age of first-time homebuyers rose to 40. A 2026 survey by Northwestern Mutual found that among U.S. Gen Z respondents who use or are considering high-risk speculative instruments, 80% said they are financially behind and hope these instruments (aka TGC /Crypto) can help them achieve their goals faster.
These data present two realities that exist simultaneously: large assets require long-term accumulation; small, immediate products with the imagination of high returns are competing for some people's attention.
Cards also have cultural familiarity as an entry point. A person may not be familiar with a company's cash flow, but knows which character they like and which version is popular in the community. Although familiarity does not equal making money, it makes participation easier; even if the price does not rise temporarily, collection and display can also provide a reason to continue holding, because participants will have a feeling that they understand better than the old-timers.
A 2025 Australian collectibles study commissioned by eBay and conducted by Deloitte found that 35% of surveyed collectors regarded collecting as a good investment; among those collecting for investment purposes, 40% expected returns exceeding 50%. eBay data cited in the report also showed that the One Piece OP-01 booster box has risen 200% in transaction price since 2022. We ask, who would not love such a story? This kind of get-rich-quick story easily turns a hobby into an investment attempt.
While buying the white moonlight of one's childhood, the asset can also appreciate—why not?
So whether this money for buying cards belongs to consumption or investment, even the buyers themselves may not strictly distinguish.
The character they like gives a reason to buy, the rare version gives a reason to hold, and other people's money-making stories provide the imagination of appreciation. In this way, it spreads from one to ten and from ten to a hundred.
But is this not enough? Because holding spot goods is too slow. Cards are non-standardized products (similar to NFTs), and it is not easy to price them uniformly, so trading volume, turnover rate, and liquidity cannot rise, and therefore there will be no so-called derivatives trading market. Thus, in order to stimulate "spot" trading and the "get-rich-quick" effect, merchants place probability games such as "blind boxes" and "card draws" into a single sale.
Cards thus provide two different multiple imaginations: buy a card and wait for it to rise from US$100 to US$300; or spend tens of dollars and draw a card worth much more. The former waits for the next buyer to raise the quote, while the latter relies on prize pool probability. But the problem is that the steps of the traditional model are either too slow or not transparent enough, making it difficult to scale.
To make this trading table seat more people, the first problem to solve is moving a card back and forth.
Traditional card selling requires photos, condition confirmation, packaging, and shipping, and cross-border transactions also encounter customs clearance and taxes. According to eBay's U.S. site basic fee schedule, for trading cards, the final value fee is 13.25% on the first US$7,500 of total transaction amount per item, plus a per-order fee. Assuming this is a US$100 order with no taxes and shipping, after deducting 13.25% and a US$0.40 order fee, the seller receives US$86.35.
Under this cost structure, if a card rises from 100 to 110, a 10% increase may not be worth taking profit. Because the "wear and tear" of the card market, including the condition risk brought by handling, may not even be enough to cover the cost.
So some people (such as Fanatics Collect) adopt a centralized custody method to separate physical movement from trading: after cards enter the warehouse, they can change owners multiple times, and they only leave the warehouse when someone requests delivery. This largely solves the efficiency problem.
But this is still not fast enough, and it still cannot solve the ownership problem.
On-chain credentials provide another layer of possibility on this basis: when the product allows, credentials can be transferred to external wallets, used by other trading markets and smart contracts, and payments can also be connected with stablecoins. Custody solves the problem that cards do not need to be moved repeatedly, while going on-chain expands where credentials can circulate and which services can call them.
Price discovery and turnover rate are the two key words for understanding this business.
A card is listed at US$100, and the platform values it at US$100, which does not mean someone is willing to pay US$100 now. The listing price expresses the seller's expectation, the transaction price records transactions that occurred in the past, and the bid price tells holders how much they can get by exiting at this moment. The more independent buyers there are, the more sufficient the quotes and transactions are, and the easier it is for collectors to judge whether to hold or sell.
Turnover rate determines another thing: how many times the same batch of inventory can participate in transactions. Suppose inventory is worth US$1 million, with price and inventory scale unchanged, turning over once a month corresponds to US$1 million in transaction volume; turning over ten times a month corresponds to US$10 million. If it originally took an average of ten months to turn over once, and this is raised to ten times a month, the flow is 100 times the original.
Courtyard founder Nico Le Jeune once said that the same card is sold an average of eight times per month on the platform. Sporting Crypto, based on CryptoSlam data, compiled that the platform's monthly sales increased from about US$449,000 in April 2024 to about US$66 million in April 2025. This case of a collectibles platform expanding from a small base demonstrates the potential when trading frequency and distribution scope expand together.
In this system, random card packs and instant buyback further accelerate turnover. If users draw a card they do not like, they do not have to wait for someone else to buy it; they can accept the platform's quote and exchange the result back into balance. The platform then takes back the inventory and continues to organize sales.From the perspective of random rewards and redemption mechanisms, this looks like a new gambling table dressed in IP clothing. But whether the operators can make money comes back to the probabilities, costs, and cash reserves of the entire card pool—you cannot just look at what discount the buyback is offered at.
Suppose a user spends $50 and draws a card valued at $100, then sells it back to the platform for $85. After the full cycle, the card returns to the platform. For the platform, the cash change is:
50 - 85 = -$35
Take an example to illustrate: a card pack sells for $50, the probability-weighted average estimated value of the cards is $45, and the buyback ratio is 85%. If all cards are sold back immediately, with probabilities and valuations unchanged, the average buyback payout per round is $38.25, leaving an average of $11.75 in cash (simplified calculation, excluding any costs).
$11.75 = the $5 between the sale price and the average valuation, plus the $6.75 buyback on the $45 valuation.
How much money users get back determines whether the next round can continue. In the above model, the average return ratio is 76.5%. If we further assume that funds can be infinitely subdivided, the return ratio is constant, the entire balance is reinvested, and there is no minimum purchase amount, then a $50 initial budget can support a theoretical cumulative purchase amount of:
50 / (1 - 76.5%) = $212.77
Real products have card pack denomination limits, and draw results also fluctuate. If each pack is fixed at $50, then after getting back $38.25, the user needs to add money or switch to a cheaper product.
In reality, of course, it will not be this simple—after all, users will not sell every card back. Some keep the cards they like, some request physical delivery, and some go to the secondary market to look for higher bids. Even if a card has not left the warehouse, as long as it belongs to the user, it is no longer inventory the platform can freely put back into the prize pool. The platform needs to procure new cards, maintain the appeal of the prize pool, and also handle buyback payouts when high-value results appear in clusters.
Courtyard's fee arrangements reflect the differences between different lines of business:
The secondary trading platform fee between users (P2P) is zero; draw buyback quotes have a seven-day acceptance window, with valuations referencing recent transactions, market trends, and grading differences; transfers triggered by accepting a draw buyback incur a 6% fee, while ordinary market transactions do not incur this fee.
Therefore, a TCG platform both operates a trading market and bears the inventory risk of quoted buybacks.
Here there is a notable similarity to perpetual contracts: the same product is designed to reduce trading friction and accommodate different reasons for participation. In perpetual markets, some bet on direction, some hedge, some earn funding rates, and some make markets; in card markets, some chase IP, some collect (hoard) (coins), some draw packs, some play the game, some look for price spreads, and some manage inventory.
Outlook
More than thirty years ago, Magic: The Gathering brought people together through game stores one by one. Today, card platforms try to bring people scattered across different places with different purposes around the same batch of physical transactions. Culture lets them recognize what is on the table, mechanisms let them reach transactions faster and more efficiently, and custody and settlement mean the next round does not have to wait for a courier delivery.
Some people are willing to spend a small amount of money to buy a chance to change the outcome; others are willing to spend a certain amount of money to buy the outcome they like. Connecting these two kinds of people is the most promising business in TCG on-chain.
Whether the platform can sustainably achieve these points—continuous supply, randomness/fairness, continuous buybacks, and competitive quotes—matters more than how many times a card is flipped in a vault in determining how long and how large this trading table can operate.
Postscript
If you have heard of Pokemon before, today please allow me to introduce another Pokemon from this series: the Wish Star—Jirachi. There is a touching story behind this.
There was a child named Avery who had suffered through cancer treatment since the age of four, and Pokemon cards were his emotional support during those painful times. His favorite card was Jirachi, but unfortunately he had never been able to get it.
Just as he reached the final moments of his life, he finally opened a Jirachi.
The boy on screen stood frozen, repeatedly exclaiming: "I can't believe it..."
That video unexpectedly became his final pack-opening record in this world. Not long afterward, after a long ordeal of treatment, he passed away peacefully and left this world.
During the long and cold years of chemotherapy, it was these cards that gave him the strength to keep going. In this card circle filled with gimmicks, hype, rarity, and investment returns, he, only twelve years old:
"What moves people has never been the price or the grade of the card, but the beauty you genuinely love from the bottom of your heart and are willing to treasure for a lifetime."
Legend has it that Jirachi sleeps for a thousand years and awakens for only seven short days, and only a clear and pure voice can wake it. May you, in front of the screen, always keep this pure love.
Because it is pure, there is hope.