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Multiple Bearish Factors Strike, BTC Suffers a Sharp Selloff
Bitcoin briefly fell below $81,000 on Thursday, hitting its lowest level since September 20, before quickly rebounding to around $82,000 after Trump ruled out military action against Iran before the midterm elections. The market attributed the decline to renewed risks of a U.S.-Iran military conflict, which pushed up oil prices and long-end U.S. Treasury yields, as well as "cryptography anxiety" triggered by OpenAI's release of hundreds of AI mathematical results.
Several traders pointed out that $82,500 is the dividing line determining the subsequent structure. Rekt Capital repeatedly emphasized that whether the weekly candle can hold above this level will determine whether Bitcoin returns to the $60,000-$80,000 macro accumulation range or continues to build an early re-accumulation range; if the weekly close falls below it and it turns into resistance, a right-shoulder structure may form. Daan Crypto Trades noted that only after reclaiming $83,000 will the range midpoint and prior highs have a chance to become active again; otherwise, bears remain in control.
Some voices focused on acceptance around $80,000-$80,400, as well as the reference support around $75,000 lower down. Based on historical drawdown statistics, Timothy Peterson argued that once Bitcoin rises above roughly $88,000, the level representing a 30% drawdown from the previous high, the probability of a new high rises significantly, with a historical hit rate close to 100%.
In addition, quantum-related discussion is also heating up. Ethereum researcher Justin Drake called for attention to "bunker mode," suggesting that funds be moved to new addresses whose public keys have not been exposed, in order to prevent AI-accelerated mathematical breakthroughs from potentially weakening elliptic curve cryptography. Coinbase crypto head Yehuda Lindell and some industry practitioners viewed this as excessive panic, stressing that the relevant assumptions have not yet been materially weakened. Doctor Profit said that a real quantum threat would first hit banks and infrastructure, rather than targeting Bitcoin alone.
Recently, the market has shown more spot-driven characteristics, while options skew and open interest relative to market capitalization have not yet shown obvious bubble signals. Will Clemente reminded that local daily divergences have appeared, requiring short-term caution, but over the larger cycle, after breaking above key weekly moving averages, history rarely sees a retest of cycle lows. Meanwhile, on-chain monitoring showed that over the past three days, the U.S. government deposited 17,733 BTC, worth about $1.48 billion, and 750 WBTC, worth about $62 million, into Coinbase Prime, during which Bitcoin fell about 6.9%. This large transfer sparked discussion about potential selling pressure or custody adjustments, but no clear signal of large-scale distribution has yet been seen.
Today's Highlights:
LAPTOP airdrop claim deadline arrives; all unclaimed tokens will be burned
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: KAIA, XRP, BTC, ETH, ONDO
Bitcoin spot ETF: -$244 million
Ethereum spot ETF: -$72.544 million, with 8 consecutive days of net outflows
Top gainers among the top 100 coins by market cap today: PYTH +14.8%, ATOM +8.9%, DOT +6.9%, BTW +5.5%, AERO +5.3%.
Semiconductors Lead Overnight Session as Market Sentiment Recovers Slightly
U.S. stock index futures stabilized after overnight risk aversion eased, with risk appetite recovering somewhat. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.83%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.39%, and Dow futures rose 0.16%.
BIT overnight session data showed that technology and the semiconductor chain became the focus of returning capital. Micron Technology rose 1.92%, AMD rose 1.89%, Intel rose 1.86%, and Nvidia rose 1.44%.
Lumentum rose nearly 4%. Its CEO said optical component capacity sold out may persist until 2029, reinforcing long-term market expectations for optical communications infrastructure demand. Related optical communications concept stocks surged, with AAOI up 5.32% and Coherent up more than 3%.
SpaceX rose about 3.7%. After SpaceX announced the acquisition of a U.S. low-band spectrum asset portfolio, the market reassessed the potential for Starlink Mobile to expand into traditional wireless communications services, while traditional carriers such as AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile face competitive pressure from satellite-to-phone services.
Apple fell 2.2%. Reports said demand after price increases was weaker than expected, and the company cut its order volume for the iPhone 18 Pro.
Affected by rising memory and chip costs, multiple Huawei and Xiaomi models saw another round of price increases after the National Day holiday. Among them, the entire Xiaomi 17 Ultra imaging flagship lineup rose by 1,000 yuan, with prices rising to 7,999 yuan to 9,999 yuan; some models in the Huawei nova 16 series rose by 200 to 400 yuan. Previously, the Huawei Mate 80 series and models from other mainstream brands had already raised prices due to surging memory costs.
Samsung Electronics is also facing severe challenges. Due to soaring memory prices, it is sharply cutting fourth-quarter smartphone supply by 20% to 30%, with some products facing a situation of "losing money on every unit sold." Brokerages predict that its mobile business division may record an operating loss of 19 trillion won in the third quarter.
It is reported that Huawei executive Yu Chengdong said the cost per phone has increased by about 1,343 yuan. Many manufacturers and institutions predict that this price increase cycle may last until 2028. Although manufacturers are trying to stimulate consumption through the expectation that "buying later will be more expensive," market response has been lukewarm, and consumers' willingness to upgrade phones has clearly declined. China's mobile phone shipments have fallen year-on-year for five consecutive quarters, and the consumer replacement cycle has now lengthened to 42 months.
AI Cash Flow Under Scrutiny as Energy and Gold Take Over the Safe-Haven Narrative
Last night, the U.S. Nasdaq plunged 1.25%, its largest drop in nearly seven weeks, while the S&P 500 fell 0.47% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted 3.39%. The core trigger was that OpenAI's latest investor document showed annualized revenue of nearly $50 billion as of the end of September, far below the $70 billion circulating in the market. The roughly $20 billion expectation gap directly shook the core assumption of "unlimited AI demand."
Goldman Sachs' trading desk noted that Samsung and TSMC results missing high expectations, along with rumors of further bond financing by Oracle and Broadcom, jointly intensified doubts about the sustainability of capital expenditure. Matt Maley of Miller Tabak said investors are beginning to question how long AI spending of such scale can be maintained against the backdrop of sharply rising borrowing costs.
It is worth noting that China's National Climate Center confirmed that a super El Nino event formed in September 2026 and is expected to peak in December. The World Meteorological Organization warned that it could become the strongest event since 1950. In the coming months, above-normal global temperatures and rising extreme weather risks may indirectly affect the path of energy and agricultural product prices, further disturbing inflation expectations. Jefferies previously warned that if a super El Nino becomes reality, a group of U.S. consumer stocks will be the first to be hit. What makes this storm special is that, unlike most climate risks, El Nino can be precisely tracked months before landfall, giving investors ample opportunity to identify affected targets before the economic consequences fully materialize.
Crypto-related stocks came under broad pressure last night. According to BIT U.S. Stocks data, Strategy fell 1.24%, Coinbase fell 3.61%, Robinhood fell 2.28%, and Circle was flat.
Mining companies fell even more sharply. Hut 8 dropped 10.87%, Riot dropped 9.17%, CleanSpark dropped 7.73%, IREN dropped 7.70%, Cipher Digital dropped 7.28%, Bitdeer dropped 6.54%, Terawulf dropped 5.21%, Marathon dropped 4.34%, American Bitcoin dropped 5.72%, and Canaan dropped 4.90%.
Nikkei Edges Lower as Chip Stocks Weigh; Hong Kong and A-Shares Supported by Gold and Consumer Tech
South Korea's stock market was closed on October 9 for Hangul Day, so there is no daily gain or loss data.
Japan's stock market opened lower under pressure from tech stocks, falling more than 1% at one point during the session before gradually recovering losses, with the Nikkei 225 ultimately down 0.02%. Affected by concerns over OpenAI's revenue, Japanese chip-related stocks fell collectively, with SoftBank Group down more than 6%, while Kioxia and Renesas Electronics each fell more than 4%. An LGT Asia private banking report noted that USD/JPY may remain range-bound between 155-160 in the short term, and Japanese investors repatriating European fixed-income assets may provide support for the yen.The three major Hong Kong stock indices rose together, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 1.79% and the Hang Seng Tech Index closing up 3.06%. Internet technology stocks generally rebounded, with Xiaomi Group up nearly 10%; Xiaomi Pengcheng's locked orders in its first month of listing exceeded 70,000 units; Kuaishou rose 5.47%, Kling AI plans to list in Hong Kong as early as next year, and Kling 4.0 is about to launch; Tencent rose 3.26%, while NetEase, Meituan, Alibaba, and Minimax also rose in tandem.
Hong Kong gold stocks became the strongest defensive line, with Zhaojin Mining up 6.54% and Zijin Mining up 5.31%. However, the AI hardware and PCB chain came under clear pressure, with Dingtai Gaoke plunging nearly 21%, Guanghe Technology falling 10.09%, Nvidia supplier Victory Giant Technology dropping 6.71%, and Kingboard Holdings and Kingboard Laminates falling more than 5%. Market rumors circulated that the U.S. Printed Circuit Board Association is pressuring the U.S. government to remove Chinese PCB products from the military supply chain, which, combined with concerns over a slowdown in computing infrastructure spending triggered by OpenAI's revenue expectation miss, led to a concentrated withdrawal of funds from the high-level hardware chain. Everbright Securities International released a research report stating that the Hang Seng Index is repeatedly probing for a bottom in the short term and that caution is advisable.
The three major A-share indices opened lower, then rebounded after bottoming and closed higher collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.17%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.22%, with turnover of 1.92 trillion yuan. Film and television stocks surged in the afternoon with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit, the precious metals sector rallied, and computing hardware stocks continued to adjust.