Today's headlines:
Binance launches AI product stack Binance Intelligence, including AI Pro and Agent OS
Analysis: Bitcoin failed to break above late-September high in two upward attempts, pulling back after nearing $87,000
U.S. CFTC proposes first round of crypto market rules, abandoning "enforcement-only" regulatory approach
U.S. Treasury withdraws proposed crypto surveillance rules targeting unhosted wallets and CVC crypto mixing
Bitmine added 15,112 ETH last week, total holdings rise to 6.0164 million
Strategy discloses it added 334.3 BTC last week, total holdings rise to 848,000
Metaplanet: net purchase of 1,000 BTC in Q3, total holdings reach 44,000
Strive added 2,000 BTC last week for $169 million, total holdings rise to 29,462
Regulation & Macro
U.S. CFTC proposes first round of crypto market rules, abandoning "enforcement-only" regulatory approach
U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Michael S. Selig said in a Wall Street Journal op-ed that after Congress failed to pass the Clarity Act, the CFTC is proposing its first round of crypto market rules, including Regulation CTX (Crypto Asset Transaction Regulation) and Regulation CAM (Crypto Asset Market Regulation). These rules will provide a federal regulatory framework tailored to crypto assets for exchanges registered with the CFTC. Unlike the Clarity Act, the new rules do not mandate that crypto assets must be traded on CFTC-registered platforms, but exchanges that opt for this approach will be permitted to allow retail customers to trade on margin, with leverage, or with financing.
Bridgewater founder Dalio says U.S. debt crisis could erupt within 3 years
Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio says U.S. debt servicing costs are crowding out other spending, and a U.S. debt crisis could erupt within 3 years.
Hong Kong Treasury Secretary: draft amendment bill to be submitted within the year, establishing licensing regime for virtual asset trading and custody
Hong Kong Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui, speaking at a policy briefing of the Legislative Council Panel on Financial Affairs, said a draft amendment bill will be submitted within the year to establish a licensing regime for virtual asset trading, custody, advisory, and management services. In addition, Hong Kong's Central Gold Clearing and Settlement System will officially launch in Q1 next year, and HKEX will announce details of a new RMB-denominated gold futures contract with physical settlement within the year.
U.S. Treasury withdraws proposed crypto surveillance rules targeting unhosted wallets and CVC crypto mixing
According to market news, the U.S. Treasury has withdrawn proposed crypto surveillance rules targeting unhosted wallets and CVC crypto mixing.
Project Dynamics
Binance launches AI product stack Binance Intelligence, including AI Pro and Agent OS
Binance announced the launch of its AI product stack Binance Intelligence, comprising three products: Binance AI, free for all users; Binance AI Pro, which converts natural language into executable strategies; and Binance Agent OS, for developers to build AI applications. Binance AI integrates charts, news, social platforms, on-chain data, and research tools, dynamically adjusting the interface through generative UI, rolling out gradually from October 5. Each Binance AI Pro strategy runs in an independent sub-account, and users must review and approve before trading; it will launch in the second half of October under a freemium model, with the Premium plan at $19.99 USDC per month. Binance Agent OS has exceeded 280,000 daily calls since its launch in August 2026.
Bithumb to list BR and POD tokens on the Korean won market
According to an official announcement, South Korean crypto exchange Bithumb will list BR and POD tokens on the Korean won market, with trading expected to open at 19:00 local time.
Solana Foundation launches DvP settlement solution, aiming to become the institutional on-chain trading standard
According to TheStreet, the Solana Foundation announced the launch of Solana DvP (Delivery-versus-Payment), an open-source delivery-versus-payment settlement program for institutions, helping financial institutions achieve simultaneous delivery of assets and funds on the Solana chain. JPMorgan provided advice on institutional settlement needs during the project's development. Solana DvP is based on the DvP settlement principles of traditional financial markets, avoids counterparty risk, and can complete settlement within seconds through a single atomic transaction, whereas traditional markets typically take 1 to 2 business days. The solution uses the MIT open-source license, allowing institutions to use and build on it without licensing fees.
Binance to distribute MRVL and ORCL dividends through bStocks
According to an official announcement, Binance will distribute dividends for Marvell Technology (MRVL) and Oracle Corporation (ORCL) through bStocks to users holding MRVLB and ORCLB balances. After deducting applicable withholding taxes, fees, costs, and other expenses, the net cash dividend will be reinvested as additional units or fractional shares of the same underlying securities, and eligible users will receive dividends in the form of MRVLB and ORCLB stock tokens. Users holding MRVLB and ORCLB balances on-chain will receive bStocks dividends through a multiplier adjustment.
Ethereum emergency fix before Glamsterdam testing, Sepolia gas limit to rise to 200 million
According to CoinDesk, the Ethereum development team completed an emergency software update before testing the Glamsterdam upgrade on the Sepolia testnet, fixing an issue that could cause some validators to produce low-capacity blocks. This test will raise the Sepolia network's gas limit from about 60 million to 200 million, validating Ethereum's future improvements to network processing capacity. Ethereum validator client Prysm released version 7.2.1 to ensure validator nodes participate in the Glamsterdam test as expected. Glamsterdam is Ethereum's next major upgrade, with Sepolia as the test network deploying the related improvements first.
OKX Star: OKX is moving from a crypto exchange to a global fintech platform
OKX founder and CEO Star said at the OKX NOW conference in Singapore that the exchange is OKX's starting point, not its endpoint, and that OKX will build a global fintech platform around four directions: holding funds, payments, investing, and wealth management. Star said crypto finance and traditional finance are accelerating their convergence, and OKX will continue investing in global compliance infrastructure and enhance transparency through regular proof of reserves, with Deloitte having become OKX's global auditor. On AI, about 95% of engineering code merge requests have had their main development work completed through AI workflows; in the future, AI will be widely applied in customer service, anti-fraud, user protection, compliance, and wealth management scenarios.
GLM-5.3 listed on Amazon, Zhipu opens overseas revenue-sharing channel
According to Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily, Amazon Web Services' large model service platform Amazon Bedrock officially announced the integration of Zhipu's GLM-5.3, with AWS sharing revenue with Zhipu based on model call volume. In addition to AWS, Zhipu has recently implemented revenue-sharing models with multiple overseas cloud vendors. Domestically, Zhipu has signed similar revenue-sharing agreements with leading cloud vendors such as Alibaba Cloud's Bailian platform, and Huawei Cloud has listed GLM-5.3 and reached intent for similar cooperation, forming a revenue-sharing system spanning domestic and international markets.
LayerZero repurchases another $347,000 worth of ZRO, cumulative buyback amount reaches $5.4 million
According to Arkham monitoring, LayerZero purchased approximately $347,000 worth of ZRO tokens again about 40 minutes ago, with cumulative buybacks reaching 2.538 million tokens, worth about $5.4 million. Meanwhile, the ZRO price rose above $2.13 and is approaching the $3 resistance level. LayerZero co-founder Bryan Pellegrino has repeatedly expressed optimism about ZRO's long-term development.
Strategy discloses it added 334.3 BTC last week, total holdings rise to 848,000
According to market news, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) disclosed it added 334.3 BTC last week, with holdings rising to 848,000.3 BTC.
Strive added 2,000 BTC last week for $169 million, total holdings rise to 29,462Strive CEO Matt Cole disclosed that Strive bought 2,000 BTC last week for $169 million, at an average cost of $84,422 per coin, bringing total holdings to 29,462 BTC. 61.5% of the financing came from SATA, and warrants generated $56.7 million. The 8-K filed today also disclosed key metrics and KPIs through the third quarter of 2026.
Bitmine added 15,112 ETH last week, bringing total holdings to 6.0164 million coins
Ethereum treasury company Bitmine disclosed that as of October 4, 2026, its crypto assets, cash and marketable securities, and "Moonshots" holdings totaled $17.4 billion. The company holds 6,016,414 ETH at $2,726 per coin, representing 4.9% of Ethereum's total supply of 122.1 million coins; it also holds 214 bitcoins, a $180 million stake in Beast Industries, a $117 million stake in Eightco Holdings, and $643 million in cash and marketable securities. Over the past week, Bitmine added 15,112 ETH.
The company has staked 5,067,309 ETH, worth $13.8 billion, with annualized staking revenue projected at $363 million. Chairman Thomas "Tom" Lee said Bitmine has nearly completed 99% of its "Alchemy of 5%" goal and has bought ETH every week since launching its ETH treasury strategy on June 30, 2025. He also said that in the first nine months of 2026, ETH fell 10%, while BMNR fell only 3%, outperforming by 731 basis points; in the third quarter, ETH outperformed the S&P 500 by 6,832 basis points.
Investment and Financing News
BlackRock and several UAE funds in talks to participate in OpenAI's latest $30 billion funding round
According to Bloomberg, people familiar with the matter said that several UAE investment funds, including MGX, are in talks with OpenAI and may participate in its latest $30 billion funding round. These funds will participate as a consortium, with total discussed investment amounts of up to $10 billion. BlackRock is also in talks to participate in this funding round. The financing is still ongoing and specific terms may change. OpenAI is seeking to raise at least $30 billion, with a pre-money valuation expected to reach about $1.4 trillion. The company has delayed its IPO plans until at least next year, citing a focus on AI safety. Its most recent funding round was in March, when it raised $122 billion at a post-money valuation of $852 billion.
SoftBank-backed DayOne Data Centers plans to raise up to $5 billion in a U.S. IPO
According to Reuters, people familiar with the matter said that SoftBank-backed DayOne Data Centers plans to raise up to $5 billion in a U.S. IPO and list American Depositary Shares (ADS) on Nasdaq by the end of this year at the latest. The company submitted an IPO prospectus to the SEC on Monday. According to the filing, DayOne is headquartered in Singapore, and its revenue in the first half of this year more than tripled year-over-year to $512 million; net loss during the same period widened from $13.5 million to $81.9 million.
AI security company Hadrian completes $40 million funding round, with HV Capital and others participating
According to Businesswire, AI security company Hadrian announced the completion of a $40 million funding round, co-led by Forgepoint Capital International and SmartFin, with participation from existing investors including HV Capital, Motive Partners, Picus Capital, and Oetker Ventures. The company combines continuous exposure surface management and AI agent penetration testing to simulate an attacker's perspective for enterprises, helping them discover external attack surfaces, verify real risks, and optimize remediation priorities. After this funding round, Hadrian's cumulative funding has reached $65 million, and the funds will be used to expand into European and American markets and grow its engineering and research teams.
DeepSeek funding size may reach $12 billion, with Tencent and CATL planning to participate
According to Bloomberg, AI company DeepSeek is close to completing a new funding round, with the size expected to reach at least RMB 80 billion (about $12 billion), significantly exceeding its previous funding target of about RMB 50 billion. People familiar with the matter said that Tencent Holdings and CATL have committed larger amounts, and the financing transaction is expected to be completed soon. Due to a significant increase in market demand and investment interest after the release of its latest AI model, the final amount may even approach RMB 100 billion. DeepSeek plans to hold an IPO in early 2027, and this funding round will provide financial support for its pre-listing development.
Bloomberg: Goldman Sachs cashes in on SpaceX listing, earns about $100 million in advisory fees, with early client cash-outs contributing hundreds of millions more in incentive fees
According to Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Group earned hundreds of millions of dollars in incentive fees by helping clients invest early in SpaceX after its listing in June this year at a valuation of $1.77 trillion. People familiar with the matter said that more than five years ago, Goldman Sachs helped some high-net-worth clients participate in SpaceX investments when the valuation was only tens of billions of dollars. After SpaceX's listing, Goldman Sachs clients who sold shares reaped huge gains while also generating hundreds of millions of dollars in incentive fees for Goldman Sachs. In addition, Goldman Sachs, as one of the lead listing advisors, also received about $100 million in advisory fees and plans to use part of these incentive fee proceeds for early charitable donations to achieve greater tax efficiency.
Moonshot AI reportedly completes pre-IPO funding, latest valuation about $50 billion
According to people familiar with the matter, Moonshot AI has completed its final private funding round at a valuation of about $50 billion and is advancing plans for a Hong Kong IPO in the first quarter of next year. The sources said the company has begun preparations to gauge investor interest and may start preliminary meetings with investors as early as this month. The people said discussions are still ongoing and the IPO timing may also change.
Views & Analysis
Analysis: Bitcoin holds above the $80,400 capital cost basis, with most investors' positions turning profitable
Crypto analyst Darkfost said that compared with the end of August, the trend in the Bitcoin market has clearly changed, as can be observed through the Capital Cost Basis indicator. This indicator weights realized price by transaction amount (USD), giving higher weight to BTC bought at high prices and more accurately reflecting the actual cost of market capital. Data shows that at the end of August, BTC was still struggling near this key level, while Bitcoin has now closed above the capital cost basis of about $80,400 for several consecutive weeks, meaning most capital invested in the market is now slightly profitable, and market stability is strengthening day by day, which is a positive signal for the current BTC sideways consolidation phase.
Analysis: Bitcoin blocked three times near $87,000, and breaking the key level requires absorbing selling pressure
According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin encountered selling pressure in the $87,000 range, the third time since September 23 that it has been blocked near $87,000. Total crypto market capitalization fell back to about $2.93 trillion, while U.S. stocks performed more strongly, with the Nasdaq 100 hitting a record closing high and the S&P 500 less than 0.5% from its all-time high. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 5.32%, close to its highest level since 2002. FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich said BTC has formed a trend of rising local lows, but bulls have not yet gained enough upward momentum, and the price is approaching the apex of a triangle formed by horizontal resistance and an ascending support line. Market observers believe BTC needs sufficient buying volume to absorb selling pressure at this level, and once it holds, it could further open upside space.
Cathie Wood: Collapse in AI costs may trigger a productivity revolution, and the economy may usher in "benign deflation"
ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood said on X that current AI inference costs are falling 99.99% annually at unchanged performance levels, while OpenAI's annualized revenue run rate has increased from $20 billion to $70 billion, indicating that falling costs are driving rapid demand growth. She believes that cost declines brought by innovation platforms such as AI will gradually transmit to the broader economy, improve productivity and corporate profitability, and push inflation below most investors' expectations, the so-called benign deflation. ARK Invest expects real GDP growth could reach the high single digits; in a stronger real growth environment, interest rates may instead rise.
Analyst: Bitcoin long-term holders take profits, market absorbs 7 weeks of selling pressureCrypto analyst Axel Adler said data shows that Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) are gradually taking profits and exiting as the BTC price rises, while new demand is still able to absorb the supply released into the market. They have now reduced holdings for the 7th consecutive week, but this has not yet hindered BTC price gains. Compared with the roughly 1.07 million BTC reduction by long-term holders in November 2025, the current scale of reduction is relatively limited. The indicator turned negative on August 17 and has shown reductions for 7 consecutive weeks. As of September 28, the change in holdings was a decrease of 73,400 BTC, widening from 1,100 one week earlier.
Cathie Wood: Investors should focus on AI Agent capital flows, machine payments may become the next AI adoption indicator
ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood said that when judging the next wave of technology trends, investors should shift from focusing on developer time input to tracking the spending behavior of AI Agents and observing which services autonomous software pays money to. As AI Agents evolve from answering questions to autonomously executing tasks, the payment activity they generate may better reflect real technology adoption than product launches themselves. She predicted that in 2027, OpenAI, Anthropic, and Nvidia will continue to be at the core of competition in AI infrastructure, while compute supply, energy, capital investment, and model reliability will remain key constraints on industry expansion.
Analysis: One year after Bitcoin's all-time high, only a 32% pullback, institutional capital may change the cyclical characteristics of the crypto market
According to CoinDesk, one year after Bitcoin set an all-time high above $126,000 on October 6, 2025, its current price is about $85,453, for a cumulative decline of about 32%. After previous cycle tops, the one-year decline was about 70%-82%. The low of this bear market was around June 30, 2026, when BTC fell to about $59,000, more than 53% below its all-time high. The analysis believes this rally was driven more by spot ETFs, asset management institutions, family offices, and corporate capital. ETF flows rebalance according to target allocations, and passive buying during declines reduces selling pressure. The current market may rise in steps rather than in a parabolic fashion. BTC's annualized volatility is currently about 40%, below the historical level of more than 80%. If the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield continues to rise, it could bring new pressure to the market.
Tom Lee: The crypto market has entered a bull cycle, BMNR outperformed ETH in the first 9 months of the year
Tom Lee, chairman of Ethereum treasury company Bitmine, said that as the crypto market enters what he considers a bull cycle, ETH fell 10% in the first 9 months of 2026, while BMNR fell only 3%, achieving relative outperformance of about 731 basis points. BMNR's stock performance reflects the company's continued efforts to optimize shareholder returns, including executing the largest corporate treasury share buyback program in the crypto industry, repurchasing 21 million shares in 2026 alone. In addition, so far in the third quarter of 2026, ETH has outperformed the S&P 500 by 6,832 basis points, still showing strong performance against a backdrop of macroeconomic pressure.
Analysis: Bitcoin failed to break above the late-September high in two upward attempts, retreating after nearing $87,000
According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin rose to nearly $87,000 last week, only about $500 away from the late-September stage high of about $87,400, before encountering selling pressure and pulling back. This was BTC's second failed attempt within a week to break above the late-September high. Earlier, lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data pushed BTC to around $85,500, before it fell back several hours later. Weaker U.S. employment data reduced pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue raising rates, providing support for risk assets. If Bitcoin closes above $87,000 on the daily chart, it could become an important signal that buyers are breaking through the late-September high.
Citadel Securities interprets the Treasury selloff: AI investment intensifies competition for capital
Citadel Securities believes the core of the recent U.S. Treasury selloff is not worsening inflation expectations, but stronger U.S. economic growth and the combination of fiscal spending and artificial intelligence investment pushing up demand for capital. Nohshad Shah, the firm's head of EMEA fixed income sales, warned that if yields continue to rise, the market may need to reassess growth prospects, the policy path, or term premiums. He said that the rise in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield in September came almost entirely from real yields, while inflation expectations remained relatively stable. Higher real yields reflect a U.S. economy supported by fiscal easing, loose financial conditions, and large-scale AI investment, with investors essentially demanding higher after-tax returns.
Analyst: Bitcoin power-law model shows $157,800 may be the next reference target price
Crypto analyst Darkfost said that over the past decade, Bitcoin price fluctuations around the power-law trendline have gradually decreased. The peak of the oscillator indicator has fallen from +169 in 2018 to +102 in 2025, and the standard deviation of daily changes has dropped from 4.81 to 2.47, a decline of about 49%. As of October 3, the model oscillator was +34.5, with Bitcoin priced at about $84,700. Based on the model parameters that day, an oscillator reading of +100 corresponds to a Bitcoin price of about $157,800, about 86% above the current price. He emphasized that $157,800 is not a fixed target price, but a reference level based on current regression parameters. If the power-law trendline continues to rise, that reference price will also increase.
The next big risk for Treasuries: a futures "technical switch" could amplify the next round of selling
According to Financialpost, with the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield approaching 6%, a technical rule in U.S. Treasury futures contracts is becoming a potential amplifier for further increases in long-end yields. Futures prices usually track the cheapest-to-deliver (CTD) bond in a basket of deliverable Treasuries. When yields rise rapidly, the CTD may shift to longer-dated Treasuries, triggering a CTD switch and forcing investors to readjust futures positions. BNP Paribas strategists said a migration of the CTD to longer maturities could exacerbate the rise in long-end yields in the cash market. When long-bond yields rise to a certain level, it triggers forced selling of Treasury futures, which in turn pushes long-bond yields even higher.
Analyst: Bitcoin bull market indicator remains in bullish range, but spot demand is currently lacking
Crypto analyst Darkfost said Bitcoin's Bull Score Index is still in a clearly bullish zone, currently scoring 80/100, with multiple indicators continuing to support BTC upside momentum. The only relatively lagging factor at present is spot demand. Market spot trading volume remains low, and there has not yet been obvious spot buying demand. He believes spot demand is the key missing factor in the current BTC market trend, and this link is often also the last part to form.
CZ on "every BTC pullback is an opportunity": accurate prediction is purely coincidental, but I have always been bullish
A community user posted that CZ published a daily message on September 16, 2026 saying every pullback is an opportunity, when Bitcoin was priced at about $75,800, and linked it to recent BTC price action. In response, CZ said this was purely coincidental and stated: I am only right slightly more than 50% of the time, because I have always been bullish.
Michael Saylor on the Bitcoin investment matrix: BTC, MSTR, and STRC correspond to ownership, leverage, and yield respectively
Strategy founder Michael Saylor said on X that Bitcoin can serve different types of investors: BTC provides direct ownership, MSTR provides amplified Bitcoin exposure, and STRC provides yield opportunities, with its 30-day price volatility lower than all Magnificent Seven (Mag 7) stocks. He added that digital capital is the foundation of digital equity and digital credit.
Important Data
The probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in October is 77.3%
According to CME FedWatch: the probability that the Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged in October is 77.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 22.7%. The probability that the Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged in December is 13.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 67.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 18.8%.
Musk's net worth breaks through $1 trillion again after three months
The net worth of the world's richest person, Elon Musk, has once again exceeded $1 trillion after three months. According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Musk's wealth increased by $65 billion on Monday to $1.04 trillion, helped by a rebound in the value of his SpaceX and Tesla stakes. Since October, SpaceX shares have risen 13%, while Tesla has risen 6.7%. After SpaceX's June IPO, a sharp stock rally briefly made him the world's first trillionaire, but a subsequent stock slump quickly cost him the title. This increase stems from renewed market optimism toward SpaceX and Tesla, whose shares have rebounded 58% from their August lows. Musk's SpaceX and Tesla holdings together account for more than 98% of his net worth.A newly created wallet withdrew 7,166 ZEC worth approximately $9.67 million from Coinbase over the past 12 hours.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, a newly created wallet address (t1Sj6J) withdrew 7,166 ZEC worth approximately $9.67 million from Coinbase over the past 12 hours. It is currently unclear whether the address belongs to an individual investor, an institution, or another entity.