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Bitcoin sits on a dense chip concentration zone, market sentiment turns cautious
Bitcoin fell back to around $83,000 from the weekend through Monday Asian hours, with market sentiment shifting from greed last week to cautious observation. After Trump rejected Iran's seven-day ceasefire and the plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices quickly restored the supply premium, Nasdaq futures weakened in tandem, and Bitcoin failed to extend last week's upward momentum, with price repeatedly seesawing in a key technical area.
Several traders judge the current market as the final stage of the first leg up since $57,000, that is, the end of Wave 5 in Elliott Wave terms. Analyst Chen Guilin pointed out that short-term BTC is completing the first upward 5-wave move launched from 57k, and after Wave 5 ends, a mild pullback is highly likely, with the correction target looking toward the bottom of Wave 4 (about $75,000). Killa emphasized that the largest drawdown in this bear market was only 53%, volatility has already compressed significantly, and the 25% to 30% deep corrections seen in past bull markets are unlikely to reappear. A truly decent entry pullback is unlikely to exceed 15%, and once an impulsive breakout is confirmed, momentum should continue upward rather than immediately forming a new range. CrypNuevo believes the bullish scenario is still playing out, with the ideal path being a full retracement of upside liquidity to $89,300, but if price surges directly without first sweeping downside stops, a sharp retracement toward the daily 50-day moving average (about $76,500) may follow.
For now, $84,000 to $85,000 is regarded as the near-term core support and a dense zone of long-term holder cost basis. Glassnode data also confirms that a large amount of chips has accumulated in this area, explaining why price has stalled here even after record ETF inflows. The first sell wall above is at $85,200 to $85,800, and above that there is thicker resistance at $87,000 to $89,000. Benjamin Cowen reminded that Bitcoin has already risen above the May high, which is technically bullish, but it is less than 1% away from that high, and the gain after this breakout above the 50-week moving average is far weaker than in the same periods of 2019 and 2023. Seasonality and upward pressure on yields make it difficult to draw conclusions easily. Sykodelic pointed out that price is consolidating here, and whether it moves up or down first, it is more likely to be a fake breakout, with pullbacks being buying opportunities.
Daniel Yu, head of BIT Asset Management, said that this Wednesday's core PCE and Friday's nonfarm payrolls will directly affect October rate-hike pricing. If PCE runs hot and ETF inflows stop in the second week, the $84,000 level will be much more fragile than it appears; conversely, if inflation cools, easing pressure in the bond market will provide Bitcoin with a breathing window to absorb on-chain chips. Whether the $84,000 to $85,000 chip band can be absorbed with real money is key. On the upside, watch the September 22 high; on the downside, $82,000 to $83,000 is support converted from the early September high, and $80,000 is the bottom line for this cycle.
Today's highlights:
Weekly preview | Bitget will open withdrawals for various coins in phases, and the CEO and other executives will respond to community questions in an AMA; exchange CoinEx will terminate spot trading after ceasing operations
Data: 2Z, SUI, ENA and other tokens will see large unlocks this week, among which the 2Z unlock is worth about $114 million
Grayscale's Zcash ETF implements a 1-for-3 share split
Upbit delists the Synthetix (SNX) trading pair
Robinhood's third HOOD Summit opens on September 29, with latest product launches expected
Coinbase will delist Badger DAO (BADGER) and Storj (STORJ) on September 29
Falcon Finance (FF) unlocks about 77.14 million tokens, worth about $10.2 million
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: CASHCAT, XRP, ONDO, BTC, WLD
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $2.386 billion last week, a near one-year high
Spot Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of $690 million last week, with BlackRock's ETHA leading at $326 million
Spot HYPE ETFs saw net inflows of $9.2547 million last week
Spot XRP ETFs saw net inflows of $75.5931 million last week
Spot SOL ETFs saw net inflows of $188 million last week
Top gainers among the top 100 coins by market cap today: BTW up 28.4%, QNT up 26.8%, HBAR up 15.4%, XDC up 10.8%, PUMP up 10.2%.
Stock index futures under pressure across the board, tech and semiconductors lead overnight declines
U.S. stock index futures for the three major averages all moved lower, with Nasdaq 100 futures extending losses to about 1%, S&P 500 futures down about 0.41%, and Dow futures down about 0.4%.
BIT overnight data shows that Trump did not rule out additional military action against Iran before the midterm elections over the weekend, and geopolitical uncertainty quickly suppressed risk appetite, with tech growth stocks bearing the brunt.
Semiconductors and high-beta names led the declines: the 3x long semiconductor ETF fell more than 7%, AMD fell about 2.6%, Intel fell about 3.4%, Micron fell about 2%, Marvell fell about 3.1%, SanDisk fell more than 3%; Meta fell about 2.5%; the gold ETF fell more than 3%.
AI compute arms race intensifies, crypto-related stocks pull back collectively
Last Friday, U.S. stocks closed higher supported by AI trading, with tech and semiconductors performing strongly for the week. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.41% and gained 6.27% for the week, achieving a fourth consecutive weekly gain, the longest streak since May.
After Trump rejected Iran's ceasefire plan over the weekend, oil prices rebounded, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield held near 5.2%, the highest since 2007, and the 30-year yield also touched higher levels. The MOVE index jumped sharply for the week, and bond market volatility is transmitting to risk assets. BofA strategist Michael Hartnett warned that if the MOVE index rises above 125 and global financial stocks weaken in tandem, it could trigger a risk-off deleveraging event. At present, the two indicators have not yet broken above the warning line simultaneously, but this remains a risk scenario that must be closely watched.
In addition, China and the U.S. reached a "300 versus 300" reciprocal tariff reduction framework and a trade council consensus in economic and trade consultations, with more than 90% of products expected to enjoy most-favored-nation tariff treatment, providing some buffer for related trade chains, but far from enough to offset the dual pressure from geopolitics and interest rates. Wall Street scrutiny of AI trades is also intensifying. Goldman Sachs calculations show that six companies—Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle and SpaceX—need to generate a combined revenue of about $1.42 trillion from 2028 to 2030 for this round of compute investment to achieve a 15% annualized return. Meta's agent Muse saw daily active users surge, but resource consumption was about 10 times that of internal testing, raising safety and cost issues; at the same time, the New Mexico attorney general is seeking a fine of up to $219 billion against Meta, further weighing on sentiment. Bill Gates called for stronger federal AI legislation, while Trump emphasized continuing to advance competition, as the battle between regulation and commercialization enters a new phase.
Crypto-related stocks came under pressure across the board. According to BIT U.S. Stocks data, Strategy fell 1.86%, Coinbase fell 2.06%, Robinhood fell 1.18%, and Circle fell 4.30%.
Miners fell more notably: Hut 8 Mining fell 4.65%, Bitdeer Tech fell 5.27%, American Bitcoin fell 5.21%, IREN fell 4.39%, Canaan fell 4.04%, Terawulf fell 3.38%, Marathon Digital fell 2.86%, CleanSpark fell 2.17%, Cipher Digital fell 2.04%, and Riot Platforms fell 2.04%.
Japan and South Korea fall together, Hong Kong stocks diverge, A-shares adjust deeply
Japanese and South Korean stock markets both closed lower on the 28th, with the Nikkei 225 down 0.73% and South Korea's KOSPI down 2.70%. Japan's 2-year government bond yield approached 2%, a new high since 1995. Central bank meeting minutes showed that several members called for faster rate hikes, and the market increased bets on policy tightening. Among heavyweight stocks, Kioxia fell 4.37%, Chugai Pharmaceutical fell 3.84%, Daiichi Sankyo fell 3.38%, and Nidec, the global precision motor leader (formerly Nippon Densan), hit the limit down and may plan to record an impairment loss of about 1 trillion yen in the fiscal year ending March 2026, with the write-down amount roughly equal to 10 years of net profit; SoftBank and Mizuho Financial rose against the trend.In South Korea, Samsung Electronics fell more than 5%, SK Hynix dropped about 5%, and SK Square fell more than 7%, putting the entire technology and memory chain under broad pressure; financials and some new energy names were relatively resilient. South Korean President Lee Jae-myung said the same day that he would make every effort to build Asia's most attractive capital market, seeking to offset the short-term sentiment shock.
The three major Hong Kong stock indices closed mixed, with the Hang Seng Index up 0.54% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.37%. Most internet stocks rose, with NetEase up 4.86%, Kuaishou up 2.27%, Trip.com up 1.55%, and Tencent up 0.73%, while Xiaomi fell 0.15%. Mainland bank stocks were broadly stronger, with ICBC, China CITIC Bank, and BOC Hong Kong up more than 2%, and Agricultural Bank of China hitting a new intraday high.
Pressure was concentrated in AI, semiconductors, gold, and optical communications. YOFC fell more than 16%, optical module leaders Zhongji Innolight and Cambridge Technology fell about 12%, Kingboard Laminates and Victory Giant Technology fell more than 10%, and Kingboard Holdings and MINIMAX both dropped more than 9%. Gold stocks were also broadly lower, with Lingbao Gold down 10.66%, Shandong Gold down 9.35%, Zhaojin Mining down 5.45%, and Zijin Mining down 2.65%. UBS bucked the trend by raising its earnings forecast for YOFC and maintaining a Buy rating, arguing that structural demand for high-end optical fiber from AI data centers is underestimated, but short-term selling momentum still prevailed.
After the Mid-Autumn Festival, A-shares collapsed, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.67%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 3.44%, and the ChiNext Index down 4.53%. More than 4,500 stocks in the broader market declined, with turnover of about 1.7 trillion yuan. Hog, wind power, and some vaccine sectors were active against the trend, while computing hardware, semiconductors, precious metals, and consumer electronics came under across-the-board pressure. Ahead of the National Day holiday, risk-aversion sentiment was strong, and combined with weakness in overseas technology stocks, growth styles became the main target of selling.
Next, watch:
September 28 (Monday)
From 20:15, the earliest launch window for SpaceX's 14th Starship test flight opens: watch whether the orbital attempt and Starlink V3 satellite deployment can proceed as planned; weather and technical conditions may delay the mission, and the commercial space sector should not be traded as a success based only on advance notice.
September 29 (Tuesday)
The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its interest rate decision: the market expects a 25 basis point hike, raising the cash rate to 4.60%. If the statement further emphasizes diesel price increases and sticky inflation, the Australian dollar and global tightening trades may be supported.
Trump, the House Speaker, and technology executives are scheduled to hold an AI meeting, and the AI-driven website America.gov is reportedly set to launch: Musk, Jensen Huang, and others are expected to attend. Focus on federal government procurement, AI safety, and the regulatory tone, not just the volume of the launch event; the specific attendance list and arrangements are still to be confirmed.
The G20 trade ministers' meeting will be held from September 29 to October 1, with the U.S. Trade Representative expected to attend; the U.S. import ban on certain Canadian goods is set to take effect on the 29th. Watch U.S.-Canada trade friction and supply chain reactions, and pay attention to when details will be announced on the new China-U.S. trade and investment council and reciprocal tariff reduction arrangements.
September 30 (Wednesday)
At 0:30, OpenAI DevDay is held in San Francisco: CEO Altman is expected to give the opening speech at 1:00, and OpenAI is expected to release GPT-6 Cyber, AI development tools, and more products, with the market especially focused on "O," ChatGPT Pro Max, and AI hardware rumors. If product capabilities and the commercialization path exceed expectations, it may further stimulate trades in AI software, cloud computing, and computing power demand.
Huawei's Ascend 950 intelligent computing cluster plans to provide services to Chinese customers: focus on actual delivery capability and customer adoption, not just inference performance targets.
Federal Reserve officials begin a dense round of speeches: Goolsbee, Musalem, Williams, and others appear in succession, followed by Barkin, Collins, Schmid, and Cook. Focus on how they weigh the energy shock against the employment slowdown; hawkish wording may once again push up long-end yields.
India's sugar export restrictions were originally set to last until the end of September: watch whether they are extended, and the impact of weather risks on sugar prices.